Tropics watch in the Gulf.

We have many, many days to monitor Katia far out in the central Atlantic Ocean. It is too early to determine if it will ever affect any land areas.

Closer to home, we have a more immediate concern. Depicted in the graphic below over the Gulf of Mexico is a tropical disturbance with increasingly organized thunderstorm activity. Numerous computer models forecast this system developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm late this week.

Watching the Gulf of Mexico

Watching Caribbean disturbance move into the Gulf | Satellite loop

At this early juncture, the primary threats appear to be torrential flooding rain and at least some coastal flooding, high surf and rip currents (a vastly underrated killer, by the way). We outline those areas most at risk in our "threat level" graphic below.




The wind threat is initially low, but this could change depending on the exact track and intensity of the system

Gulf disturbance threat level

Where is the threat highest from the Gulf disturbance? | Enlarge

This tropical system could "loaf and lollygag" (technical term) for several days along or near the Gulf Coast. To get an idea of the forecast uncertainty with this system, click the image below to see the latest forecast tracks from our hurricane models.

The Setup: A Slow-Motion Headache!